Oscar Predictions 2013

Regardless of what you think of the Academy, the Oscars and some of the ridiculous decisions that have been made over the years, the fact that this is the biggest awards ceremony in the world means that you can’t just ignore it. This year is no different to any other – when the nominations were announced there were shocks, snubs and cynicism in reaction from the press in equal measure, but the result is that we have one of the most interesting awards in recent years. The Oscars roll in at the end of the month and, having now watched ALL films nominated for the big six awards (I refuse to put myself through Mirror Mirror, I don’t care if it’s been nominated for Best Costume Design), which are Best Supporting Actress and Actor, Best Actress and Actor, Best Director and Best Picture, this is how the night will probably pan out, as opposed to how I think it should pan out.

BUT just a quick gripe about people and films that definitely should have been nominated. While it’s all very nice to see some well-deserved nominations for Michael Haneke and his film Amour as well as recognition for indie film Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Sessions was a film brought up to a high level not by the acting of Helen Hunt, who’s garnered a Best Supporting Actress nomination seemingly purely on the strength of going full-frontally nude for her role as a sex surrogate, but by John Hawkes, whose dedication to properly portraying polio sufferer Mark O’Brien was at such a high level that the measures he took to mirror the curvature of O’Brien’s twisted spine came at a cost to his own health, and for this and his unique portrayal of Catholic guilt mixed in with a knowledge that time is running short and a strong desire to get his rocks off for the first time at the age of 38, he should have been nominated for Best Actor, as should Jean-Louis Tritignant for Amour. Meanwhile previous winner Marion Cotillard should have merited a Best Actress nomination for her role as Stephanie, a killer whale trainer who rebuilds her life after suffering a terrible accident, in the uncompromising Rust  And Bone which, by the by, should have been in the mix for Best Picture – the two could have easily replaced surprise nominee Naomi Watts and the vastly overrated Zero Dark Thirty respectively. The Best Director category is also somewhat contentious, with Les Miserables’s Tom Hooper, Argo’s Ben Affleck, Django Unchained’s Quentin Tarantino and The Master’s Paul Thomas Anderson denied nominations by Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) respectively

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les MIserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

The only dead cert award of the night. Anne Hathaway’s been gathering up the awards (Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild along with various regional critics’ gongs) like they’re white plastic balls and she’s a Hungry Hungry Hippo with a pixie haircut for her fifteen-minute role as tragic prostitute Fantine in Les Miserables. While she piles on the emotion, which the Academy loves, Sally Field was more understated but no less affecting as the fragile, complex and unstable Mary Todd Lincoln, the perfect foil to Daniel Day Lewis’s Honest Abe.

Should win: Sally Field

Will win: Anne Hathaway

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Conversely, this is the only award where anything could happen, much as I’d love De Niro to win another Oscar after his recent decade of dross. All nominees are previous Oscar winners but no-one’s taken the bull by the horns in terms of the awards already presented – De Niro and Hoffman have won awards but Jones has the Screen Actors Guild gong and Waltz won the Golden Globe, so it would appear to be between the two of them. Based purely on the fact that Waltz won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar in 2010 for his role in Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds, I think the Academy will plump for Jones’s performance as abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens, though Hoffman’s performance as cult leader Lancaster Dodd in The Master is more intricate, subtle and memorable.

Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Probably the most interesting major category this year thanks to its oldest and youngest ever nominees, Emmanuelle Riva (85) and Quvenzhane Wallis (9). Neither of them will win (although Riva’s quiet, dignified performance as the ailing Anne in Amour is heartbreaking to watch) and neither will Naomi Watts – the race is between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence, two actresses who have only burst into the mainstream in the last couple of years. Both won Golden Globes (Chastain in the Drama category, Lawrence in Musical or Comedy) but Lawrence took home the SGA and, based on the fact that Zero Dark Thirty is more about the film and the hunt for Bin Laden than Chastain’s character and the Academy by all accounts loved Silver Linings Playbook, Lawrence looks set to win on the night.

Should win: Emmanuelle Riva

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence

Best Actor: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)

There’s really only one name that anyone’s talking about in this category, and that’s Daniel Day-Lewis. As Abraham Lincoln, he displays all of the characteristics that made the man one of the United States’s greatest presidents, embodying him in the way he’s come to embody every one of the people he’s played throughout his distinguished career. It’s unfortunate for Jackman and Phoenix – in another year, they could have been taking home the Oscar and, though Phoenix actually does run him quite close purely in terms of performance, his unfortunate slagging-off of the Oscars and Day-Lewis’s unstoppable awards run so far mean that the engraver might as well start etching his name onto the statue now.

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Director: Michael Haneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

The potential shock category. No-one quite knows how comeback king Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated for his stellar work on Argo, making what was actually a fairly routine film unbearably tense, but he wasn’t (despite picking up the Golden Globe and the Directors’ Guild award), so that’s that. You’d probably bet on Spielberg or Lee winning on the night, but no-one’s made a significant charge for glory, so it’s really impossible to tell. Given the choice, it’d be nice to see the Academy shake things up and give Haneke some mainstream recognition (though he’d probably say that he doesn’t need or want it) for Amour, which was probably the best film of the year. You get the feeling that deep-rooted patriotism will get the better of Academy members and subsequently Lincoln will start to clean up in the big categories, though, and that makes Spielberg likely to win his third Academy Award.

Should win: Michael Haneke

Will win: Steven Spielberg

Best Picture: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

The trick with trying to predict a Best Picture winner, especially with nine nominees, is to rule out the ones that definitely won’t win and narrow the field. Let’s begin. Amour won’t win – the Academy only included it to show that it’s down with what’s happening in European cinema, and the fact that Amour is also up for Best Foreign Language Film, which it’ll definitely win, sounds the death knell for its Best Picture chances. Beasts of the Southern Wild was nominated for much the same reason – an indie hit by first-time feature-makers, it’ll prove to be a bit too left-field for many voters. Zero Dark Thirty has garnered a bit too much controversy over its depiction of torture, and the directorial and screenwriting team of Kathryn Bigelow and Mark Boal were only recently honoured for The Hurt Locker. Three out, six still in the mix. Life of Pi could be seen as a bit too spiritual and wishy-washy for current tastes and relies largely on CGI, which it’ll probably clean up on in minor categories. Django Unchained, despite being the most purely entertaining film all year, is far too controversial in terms of how it portrays slavery, and the Academy has always had a bit of an uneasy relationship with Tarantino. Four still in. Les Miserables went down a storm in the US and, though Tom Hooper wasn’t nominated as Best Director, it should feel it has a decent chance on the night. Likewise, as previously mentioned, the Academy really took a shine to Silver Linings Playbook. However, the fight’s probably between Argo and Lincoln. The former sees Hollywood (the Academy’s favourite films are always about itself) assisting in the rescue of Americans trapped in a country populated by armed, rebellious brown people (Iran), while the latter is directed by one of cinema’s greatest directors and is about possibly the greatest political Amendment being pushed through by the country’s greatest president. It’ll be a tough choice but you’ve got to think that Lincoln’s greater amount of nominations overall says something about the preferences of the people who’ll be voting on the night.

Should win: Django Unchained

Will win: Lincoln